Outlook? I got one…

By Jeffrey McLarty | Published: January 25, 2010

My humble outlook, for the next 4.33 weeks of trading

…the March Gold Contract settles above 1100, the March 30 year treasury settles below 118′000, and oil settles above $77…

Place your bets. Those are mine. I’ll roll if I have to.

I’m staying away from equities, still.

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Can’t Sleep…so I’m reading about BIDU and GOOG…

By Jeffrey McLarty | Published: January 13, 2010

If that isn’t a reason, not to trade equities I don’t know what is. Say you had BIDU on short, or GOOG on long…you will wake up tomorrow, pissed off. Maybe. Or maybe the market will take both of them higher. Or lower. It’s the lessons in causality, that most retail, do not observe. They get burnt because of it.

Due to this, I haven’t traded a single issue, since May of 2009. Except TTEK. I must say, its a lot less annoying, being an active bond/oil/gold/index/volatility trader than it is equity trader.

Goodnight!

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Uh Oh

By Jeffrey McLarty | Published: January 11, 2010

…this scares me.

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Tax a Foreclosure, Not a Trade

By Jeffrey McLarty | Published: January 9, 2010

The recent talk of a transaction tax, has me sick to my stomach.

Make it harder for a home-owner to walk away from their mortgage. You can do this with policy, not a tax.

Make it harder for a lender to give a loan to somebody who can’t afford it. You can do this with policy, not a tax.

Tax irresponsibility. Tax stupidity. Tax the majority. Taxing a minority, is the easy way out, for a politician.

Grouping traders in with “Wall Street” and having them pay for the now re-paid bailouts, would be as dumb as lumping all Engineers with big Tobacco (because I’m sure there are Engineers, somewhere in Big Tobacco) and having them pay for the extra social strain caused by the people who choose to smoke and the people who facilitate it.


Irene Aldridge hit some good points, without even mentioning, the economies of scale traders contribute to when they purchase research, pay for news or buy technology.

And, as for the people who EVER compare trading to gambling, your nothing more than a ignorant uninformed, wannabe – who couldn’t make it as a trader. How, can I possibly, have 84% of my 304 trades during 2009, be in the green – if the ‘odds are actually independent of skill and education’? Especially, if I was net short domestic equities?

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Come Join Me

By Jeffrey McLarty | Published: January 3, 2010

If you’re with a broker, who charges double digit transaction fees – leave them. I recommend Interactive Brokers.

Don’t take my word for it, check out slide 13, from the deck IB put together in November [pdf].

IBRocks

[click to enlarge]

I also want to point out, regardless of your broker, the average trader actually beat the S&P…Even folks using Ameritrade ;)

UPDATE: The last statement, was more to poke fun at Ameritrade clients, than anything else. I was not clear, and should have said “according to slide 13″, and thanks to Mark, for mentioning that this data does not accurately point out deposits (or, withdrawls…for that matter). Maybe everybody was moving money from their Schwab account, to IB…hahaha.

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A Decade Later…

By Jeffrey McLarty | Published: January 1, 2010

I thought the highlights, from this decade wrap-up were interesting. These are annualized returns, for different vehicles.

1. Gold Futures 14%
2. Hedge Funds 6.3%
3. Treasury Notes 6.1%
4. 19 Raw Materials 3.3%
5. Mutual Funds 1.7%
6. The S&P, including dividends -0.9%

Oil Futures put up 12% annualized returns (approx $25 in dec 1999, to $80 now…excluding cost to carry, and losses due to contango)

I also found this quote, from a BBC article dated Dec 1999, hilarious…as oil topped ~$25.

“The price of oil may not seem as vital as the price of computers or Corn Flakes – but we may all have good reason to watch its fluctuations”

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Backwardation of Government Paper

By Jeffrey McLarty | Published: December 30, 2009

Money is pouring from government debt, and not wasting any time bidding up the price of a Joule.

I’m not sure anybody noticed, but the backwardation on 30 year treasury futures, has become more grave over the last month or so, going into expiry of the december contract. Read the tea leaves as you like. Future demand for government paper, is declining.

If a bond falls in a forest, does it make a sound?

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Ha-Ha Haaa haaa-Happy Holidays

By Jeffrey McLarty | Published: December 29, 2009

Amazing, in the last few days of 2009, the 9th of my twelve market predictions for ‘09 is coming to fruition…
ProShares is getting sued, by the traders who use their products.

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Three Wise Men

By Jeffrey McLarty | Published: December 19, 2009

I’m sure you know of the leader of the three…
VIX:IND

And, maybe you’ve even seen this…
OVX:IND

But, this one here, was new to me…
MOVE:IND

I can no longer trade, without all of them. Enjoy.

I’m saving up, for a bloomberg. Stoked.

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New Fav Schiff Video

By Jeffrey McLarty | Published: December 19, 2009

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Hot December

By Jeffrey McLarty | Published: December 19, 2009

I can’t teach this stuff.

Thank-you CFA institute.

Lets do it.

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Money Flow

By Jeffrey McLarty | Published: December 10, 2009

…has been awkward over the last two sessions. In light of this, and the charts, I see rates lower, commodities higher, and equities lower over the next 2 to 5 sessions.

If equities pierce the upper resistance, all bets are off for bonds. But money flow should support commodities for the next few sessions at least.

My position is leveraged and long oil here, collecting heavy theta on treasuries with a moderately bullish stance, and moderately short equities collecting some minor premium there.

Good luck.

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What’s another Trillion?

By Jeffrey McLarty | Published: November 8, 2009

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.WgGGtsi7Rg&pos=1

After I start my first hedge fund, I’m going to launch another one.  I’ll call it Ex-America Capital Partners.  I’ll go long foreign equities, and short domestic ones, with 10:1 leverage. It’ll be great.

Disclosure: Still incredibly leveraged and short the 30 year…and printing uber fast coin with some impeciably predictable theta decay.

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