Thank-You Timothy Sykes. Thanks, for sharing your down-to-earth opportunistic & inspirational story as well as for giving me great insights into the mind of one trader.

In Tim’s book he reminded me, I am but one market participant, and every one of us plays by different rules. This was a great book, both for the witty written words he self published and also for what was written, between the lines. Reading Tim’s thoughts, learning from his experiences, and extrapolating/hypothesizing to what was really going on during his ups and downs yielded unexpected dividends for a young eccentric trader/investor like me.

With his book, Tim offered a fun glimpse into the mind of; a trader who has unknowingly mastered causality, and an entrepreneur who laughs in the face of the improbable.

Tim offers up his ‘tell-it-like-it-is’ and some ‘do-as-I-say-not-as-I-do’ advice, and illustrates through example why he believes discipline is the most important trait for a trader to possess. I do concur. But what I meant before, about reading between the lines, is that he illustrates (without explicitly writing about) the importance of understanding causality. It was great to read that Tim’s documented version of his thought process, more or less, show that the closer a trader adheres to the fickle whims of market causality, the closer the trader gets to unparalleled returns.

I was impressed to learn of Tim’s experiences, not only as a trader, but also as a social leverage wielding entrepreneur. He details the fun ride he had as a student who blatantly laughed in the face of the irrational games played on the capital markets, then immediately moved to exploit those same games by eventually taking on New York. He chronicles the rough, chicken and egg situation, new funds can find themselves in when raising capital. As a wannabe fund runner, I was glad to hear of all his reflections, even if our styles and viewpoint are often completely opposite, while at other times, identical.

It is with no surprise, that Tim writes a page turning story detailing his trades (both good and bad), his naivety, his cockiness, and his passionate inspiring stop-at-nothing drive towards different checkpoints. Any reader will undoubtedly also pick up a hint of heinz sight laden commentary, when it comes to his previous experience and of course lessons learned on the markets, networking, marketing, business management, and random stories. This was all, to be expected, and Tim delivered.

This wasn’t the type of book, I would typically read. But, I’m glad I did. I would recommend the book to anybody young, with at least a few years ‘on the street’ or anybody who is so obsessed with the capital markets and volatile trading stories they dream in dollar signs. The book is a must-read for anybody who may one day want to start their own fund. However, I am only speculating that his experiences will help anybody in the latter category. Any professional with more than 5 years in the business, will likely find Tim’s story, a light, amusing and even jaw-dropping read. Or, so I would guess.

Disclosure: Tim gave me a signed copy, and wanted to know what I thought. I was skeptical at first, that I would not learn anything. But, I’m glad I read it with an open mind.

Stay tuned for a review of Mohammed El-Erian’s, ‘When Markets Collide’.

If you would like your book reviewed, feel free to contact me.

Of course the title of this post…is a subtle refrence to the greatest movie of all time. This TED talk, reminded me of it…just a little.

The 19th century belonged to the horse, the 20th…to the car, the 21st…the bike…I hope the jet pack makes a recovery before we hit the 22nd

It’s Tuesday, and I haven’t made it through this week’s economist yet…I’m sad.  But, I’m getting used to wearing a cape to work, and I’m glad I’m working on Bay-street all this week…(for you Americans that’s Canada’s Wall-street).

And…I’ve got to sell some stocks I own, so that the firm I joined can maintain independence with those who we audit and/or consult.  And, I can’t tell you which ones I have to sell because, then you’ll know that they are clients of ours.  Soo…blah…this really ticks me off about working for deloitte.  Luckily the carrot they hang in front of our nose referred to as ‘

I think Deloitte is breeding super heroes…I can’t put it into words, any better than that…is that obnoxious to say?  All I’m saying is that, I am super impressed with the company culture and training that’s available.

I’m not sure if I’m going to fit in here, or not…time will tell.

They sent me to Arizona for my second week…I think it’s a million and a half degrees with the A/C on. I get back next week.

Sounds like my first project, could take me to Montreal and/or Paris…but I’m not sure, at all.

Orientation and a 2 hour commute has had me tied up, and barely able to glance at Mrs. Market…after I get back from Arizona, I’m looking forward to moving downtown Toronto at the end of August…my commute will shrink from 2 hours down to 2 minutes.  So, with that time difference…I’ll be back in the online conversation and dancing with Mrs. Market again.  Looking forward to it…and getting onto my first project at Deloitte.

Fertilizers and Pesticides for agiculture…good. Lithium for mobile…good. Soda Ash for paper, glass, and detergents…good. What do you think, get long FMC?

No position…yet.

I just discovered this site, and I hope this picture updates dynamically, as time passes…I think it will…but look at what time frame he has been BUYING…pretty heavy buying, THIS year, if you ask me.

Just click this, to see his buys and filings…pretty cool, and some interesting ideas.

Long HEK from $8.27 and $9.95.

Long TEX from $44, $50 and $52.98.

Pollution and energy are two big problems, combine that with urbanization and CVA is likely to prosper. I think FAN, and TAN, are both good bets. Good banks will be fine, and it’s time to start buying value. Mind you, 300 out of the 8000 will fail, or more, but the rest will be ok and prosper on the new standards and previously failed bank clients. PHO has too many starting points to ideas for stocks…I still haven’t found the best ones. Combining the emerging growth with rising middle class, and world water problems HEK is likely to prosper. Urbanization has many vehicles, but right now I like TEX…can’t get enough cranes, etc. Crop yields are amongst the few things in the world that have risen nearly linearly for decades, that’s a good thing for planet earth and investors. Isn’t it ironic how every country in the world seems to have +5, 6, 7%, 2,2000,000% inflation…and the US is only just now starting to count it. Rising middle class in other parts of the world, SDA is likely to prosper. I also see CL doing well for the same reason. I like the new AFK/PMNA/FRN ETFs too, these are where tomorrows money will come from, get long these names and short the S&P, dollar for dollar.

This market has me second guessing myself, and every move I make. I’m not alone, that’s why it’s been volatile, and that’s why it’s will keep being volatile. Learn to Buy-Write. Short-to-Own.

Disclosure: I put my money where my blog is, when the timing is right.

Check this out:

Now I’m no expert, but get long Obama, get long McCain that seems like a 3% yield arbitrage. One of them is going to win.

Stock Market participants are more likely to dig these insights:

I took the data from their “probability of a US recession in ‘08″, made a moving average, then took a derivative and smoothed that out too, then mapped it to the S&P.

It’s interesting to observe the causality get weaker as the contract gets closer to expiring.

Check out the earlier surges in the derivative, they appropriatly correlate, a bit at least, to the market then a reversal in the derivative means a local max or min - in some cases - in the S&P…it’s a stretch.

How do I get long Prediction Markets? I want to invest, in the actual exchange. What a cool system, I am enthusiastic about it’s growth and want to see it succeed.

I found the Trulia housing heat map helpful, which accompanied this list of average listing price of homes, for the entire STATE’s real estate listings:

Hawaii $935,452
Wyoming $859,654
New York $761,945
California $702,176
District Of Columbia $681,335
Connecticut $643,126
Colorado $569,900
New Jersey $521,040
Massachusetts $495,533
Nevada $489,991
Utah $489,021
Montana $487,482
Rhode Island $478,896
Washington $455,489
Maryland $450,270
Florida $425,327
Arizona $424,785
Oregon $413,585
Virginia $407,792
Vermont $402,066
Delaware $398,884
Idaho $388,361
New Mexico $387,137
New Hampshire $377,144
Illinois $367,713
South Carolina $355,848
North Carolina $351,462
Alaska $340,727
Maine $325,733
Georgia $319,859
Minnesota $309,031
Pennsylvania $294,639
Texas $285,073
Tennessee $272,868
Alabama $268,668
Louisiana $256,966
South Dakota $253,015
Wisconsin $249,835
Arkansas $232,074
Missouri $230,284
Mississippi $230,016
Michigan $228,748
West Virginia $227,085
Kansas $225,135
Kentucky $218,949
Indiana $204,482
Ohio $203,996
Oklahoma $197,696
Iowa $195,452
Nebraska $194,217
North Dakota $182,284

Average price for a home in Toronto (notice it’s a major city center as opposed to the prices above which are for entire states), was forecasted to average $394K for 2008 (written just a few months ago) in a report by the CHMC.  In the same report it is forcasted 2.5% YoY appreciation ‘08 to ‘09…the slowest appreciation since 1996.

For sake of reference.  Density of the entire district of columbia is about 3.6 people / m^2 where as Toronto, it’s 3.9 people / m^2.

But…we have our silly (yes that’s sarcasm) 25% down or mandatory insurance policy known as CMHC. The government just made it a little more strict by forcing 5% down and maximum amortization of 35 years.

AND…Here’s why Canada should be okay…

Canadian Cities
Average House Prices
November 2007

Canadian Provinces
Average House Prices
November 2007

 I also found this link to the NYTimes Real Estate listings search helpful, and american’s might find the MLS listings helpful.

Disclosure: Long Toronto & CANADA!