Step Away From the Fiat

…or $80, in 2008 dollars?

Oil Above 80

This chart and more, are in a great report, “The third oil price surge – what’s different this time?”,from July 2009.

This is why the puts on oil, aren’t worth what the market pays for them.

If the stuff circulating on the internet, even comes close to fruition this December 7th, anybody that has $1000 bucks to lose, could make a couple hundred thousand, shorting the December 13th Eurodollar Time Deposit Futures…I think.

I might join the party.

…referencing technology spending, in DELL’s latest, encouraging quarterly earnings report.

No position.

I wish I understood, what goes on inside a bank’s mind.

RBC is making no sense.

They have dropped their rate on a 5 year fixed rate mortgage, to I believe all-time lows for the year.

But, it’s like they aren’t even watching the quote screen.

They are selling at 3.39%. Holy hell, that’s cheap fiat.

Either way, I’m glad I locked in my 5 year fixed, at the beginning of October.

Interesting Piece in Bloomberg, on supplier behaviour when confronted with volatility.

JCP, your margins are looking, pretty thin there. Something tells me, the street likely won’t give you much better than a PE of 25, if things start to slip.

The 3 C’s of Consumer Spending….Cotton +200%. Corn +70%. Copper +35%. All in the last 4 months or so.

Here’s the chart, for Cotton.

Cotton

Now, carry on believing the USD is a store of wealth.

Stocks are going to the moon. Your pay-check is going out the window. Go demand more for your time.

As the “double the number” jobs report just confirmed, we’ve officially moved into the scariest mode, for traders.

We’ve been here for a while, but it’s now confirmed, at least for me.

Before QE2, we were in the same state, but treasuries moved with risk. That disconnected this morning.

Any good data points (ie, signs of growth in the domestic market) is cause for buying stocks, and other risk, selling bonds. It means inflation is on the way.

Any bad news (ie, signs of recession in the domestic market) is cause for buying stocks, and other risk, including bonds. It means the FED will be more likely to prop up markets.

I’m asking.

Seeing the market move today, sent chills though me. I am absolutely terrified. I’m not the only one.

Was today, the start of what it felt like in Zimbabwe? Perplexing question posed by BI, to that I ask, ‘where are the bond vigilantes’?

Oh I forgot, you can’t bet against this thing, because that’s trading against the fed.

You’re crazy to buy stocks right now, who knows how much more steam gold may or may not have, bonds are so manipulated it’s unbelievable, and you can’t hold any paper cause it’s all manipulated too.

Real-estate is literally, getting cheaper and cheaper compared to everything else, despite making all-time new highs in Toronto….simply because it is not sky-rocketting as fast.

What the hell…

Paul Kedrosky put this chart together, this surely has to be correlated with permanent new residents. Are these, perhaps, the marginal buyers/renters? Real-estate bears, I’m asking you.

Canadian Temp Resident Apps H/T Paul Kedrosky

http://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/2010/10/26/kimberly-clark-posts-19-loss.html

Corn, and oil, denominated in dollars, each an input cost for the price of the other, have disconnected.

Corn and Oil Disconnect (Click to Enlarge

Since oil is the only commodity not exploding higher, I have to believe some force is attempting to keep it inside it’s Q1 and Q2 trading ranges.  I believe, that man, is Al-Naimi.

Interesting questions unfold.  Can the US experience hyper-inflation without paying higher prices for oil?  Is Saudi-Arabia bigger than the most leveraged hedge fund participants?  Would Saudi-Arabia sell oil short, faster than they can pump it from the ground?  If so, could they bank-rupt themselves in the process of fighting the market?

Brought to you in part, by mortgages being put back on banks, criminals at the helm of Central Banks on both sides of the pacific, and momentum traders on margin.

Please stay tuned.

Update:  12 hours later, apparently, it was a very, very, very short bout.  Corn is up 5% today.  Feels good to be long panic.  Maybe it’s all just normal volatility….time will tell.