Archive for the ‘Money’ Category

How I Run Money & My Current Watchlist

Friday, May 30th, 2008

Mad Hatter wrote a post and Ross has covestor. I know my friend Thiago is more informed than I, with a better memory, but a bit of a cowboy, and Howard likes to see all time highs and good price action, and Joe told me a while back that he reads and buys quality.  Any time any of them say they are buying something I get a better picture of what that means, how much work they’ve done, etc.  Its useful, to me at least…sooo…here’s my story:

I buy on 1. ideas/trends 2. fundamentals 3. momentum 4. recommendations. 5. volatility/liquidity of derivatives

My ideas come in the form of trends and observations I read about happening all over the world. Fundamentals are a high priority, I use morningstar premium to help me with that, I find their research great and useful. Momentum is great, and can be scary, I won’t touch momentum if it’s in a field I don’t understand, nor stupid high PEs, but ~25 and under – I’ll look at. Recommendations are high on my list, that means managers of hedge funds, money managers, friends, family and reader(s?) all get a high priority in my infinite search for good stocks. If a stock is trading with liquid options, it will get a higher priority than the one without, especially if implied volatility is generally higher – I like writing calls / shorting puts. I rarely ever use technical analysis, although I probably should. My holding time frame plans range from weeks to 50 years.  Once I buy, I feel committed and prefer to hold through anything.  Like my AAPL buy at $178 a few months ago – held right on through.  I don’t use stop losses, I get that from my dad, he retired at 42.  “If you liked it at $40, you gotta love it at $30″ is what he’d say.

I have a checkpoint set at 18% a year, but a goal of 26% per year…after taxes.

I currently have two accounts. The first holds positions in 19 tickers, right now. The only tickers where I’m not long the stock is FSLR and FCX I’m just short the $210 and $90 puts. I have 6 other open option legs where I offset the downside of my long positions by writing out of the money calls. I’m doing this to CCJ, JCI, and ITU. I’m also long calls on JCI and short puts on CCJ, these are both separate legs, aside from a long position in the stock. Right now this account is 14% cash, and no holding ever gets larger than ~8%.

I’ve just recently opened up an account at Interactive Brokers. I added more almost immediately because I liked them so much.  I opened it to program an algorithm to manage a buy-write for me, on several ETFs. That is going slowly, and looks like it might not work that well. Regardless, I’m going to manage a less complicated version of the algorithm, manually. I own four ETFs, that I actively trade the front month calls on. HXU.TO, SSO, VWO and FNI. I know HXU and SSO have issues with losses/slippage, but I’m sacrificing that slippage for volatility in the form of capturing option premium. I’m 103% invested right now, if you don’t count the fact that i’m twice exposed with the two double longs.  I plan to keep this account nearly 100% invested running my buy-write.

Equity is broken up ~63% (Investments) /37% (ETFs/Buy-Write)…I plan on keeping a ratio close to this, and if I beat the markets in the “Investments” account – cool, but right now, if I lost it *ALL* my “Investments” account and never added cash to the other, so long as I get index like performance on my “ETF account”, I could still retire in less than 30 years…no matter what.

My current watchlist which basically means I’ll write puts out of the money on these stocks all day long (and hopefully get assigned) include: FSLR, FCX, JCI, VE, CVA, MIL, CCC, IBKR, MORN…as well as a few others I can’t remember right now.

What the HEK? A Chinese Water Bottler, Blank Checks

Friday, May 23rd, 2008

So, ‘Blank Check’ Company, Heckmann Corp. (HEK) recently announced they bought a Water Bottling company in China. I’m like – wow – what a great business to be in right now. Probably a scam. The chart exploded this morning. Some heavy money traded the shares north of $8.50, then it pulled back to ‘pre-publicized’ levels of $8.25. I figure 1. What a scam, these guys are investing in a likely trend/shell company, which their brother in law probably owned. If it is legit, it’s likely a great investment – anybody in charge of a ‘blank check’ likely knows what they are doing. If their crooks – no way did they go to all that trouble for the shares to peak at $8. If they aren’t crooks, same holds. So since it went back to pre-publicized levels, I bought a few shares at $8.2799. I especially liked the fact that I could consume everything in current circulation, in english, in less than an hour. It has just become my smallest holding, my biggest gamble, and most un-researched purchase. According to Lindzon, due diligence if for underperformers, lets see if he’s right. I’m literally gambling with ~1.5% of my portfolio…so blow on the dice for me…I know it’s wrong…and I’d never do this with other peoples money.

Plus, the downside shouldn’t be worse than the lows during the chart where the company was just a blank check. That’s $7.22. Soooo…yaaah. D

I Have an Idea & I’m Taking Names: A Fund Run By Bloggers

Wednesday, May 21st, 2008

In-case you can’t tell I have an incredibly amazing obsession with the capital markets.  Passionate.  I believe anybody else that blogs about stocks or the markets, does as well.  Now what would happen if these passionate people all got together and used their powers collectively, to run a fund?  A fund run by bloggers.  The team would also have the added leverage of being geographically spread out, I think that’s good.

It could work like this:  Every manager has the power to nominate a stock, as well as quantity, and limit price.  Everybody votes, and unless it’s unanimous (or like 4 against 5) we don’t buy.  We would have two choice how to run it, we could average the quantities in every-one’s vote, as well as the limit purchase prices, or we scale in using everyones votes as separate orders. Cash management and degrees of leverage (if any) would be continually taken into consideration of every vote we cast, Hypothetically we would end up only buying the best ideas and we would more able to pick a smart purchase price.   There could be bonuses tied to the performance of your cumulative votes.  This is all open to discussion, but the ironic part is, we could run this idea (either paper trading, or the real thing) through a blog.  We all get a login and password, and write posts to nominate a stock, or a list of stocks.  Then in the comment thread the other managers vote.  With a committed team, we could easily test out this idea…so, I’m taking names of who is in.

With fund of funds out there, not that I’m positive on this, but a $20M fund, I want to believe is easy to get off the ground. Set a high water mark of like 18%, take 0.25% off the base and 10% of gains after that.  We could easily afford a 5 to 10 person team, each could easily make $20K – $40K the first year, and well, 3 or 4 years down the line, let’s just say ~$30K quickly becomes negligible.  The fund would grow quicker, because we have the power to get the word out about it.  Social Leverage. 

Not sure how many people are as crazy as I am, so, I’ll be taking names for as long as it takes – could be a month – could be a year.

So for now, who is in to at least try this out on paper?  Reply to this post, if you’re interested, and make sure you have a link to your blog.