Category Archives: Markets

Strategy is Absolute

This post is for 4 people, who I’ve recently chatted with regarding investment strategies.  Hedge funds are the best representation of “ways to make money by trading stuff”.  If you trade anything, I mean any asset class, for yourself or others – you’re running a hedge fund.  I mean, in the broadest sense.  For those [...]
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Treasury Action Today & Thanks to JD!

Quite the action today in the fixed income market. I’m glad we got a little bounce, its good for the business I’m in, naked call selling! As my (one or two) readers know, I’ve been very bearish on the long end of the yield curve, especially for US debt…the duration has made for some great derivative trading. I owe [...]
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The Biggest Opportunity Right Now

…is the downside in US Debt. I want to make sure everybody I know, who wants to learn, understands how bond duration and intrest rate risk combined with the current economic storm…is creating a dramatic climax and great opportunity out of the last 27 year bull market in fixed income products sold by the US Government. So…if you [...]
Also posted in Economics, Future | Tagged | 1 Comment

My Tool Belt I’m Stalking

CCC TTEK NLC FSLR HEK ERII GLD CL/LO TBT SRS AMZN CVA VE Hyflux Vestas JEC RIG RIMM AUY CCJ ITU CREE  …and precisely 93 other water stocks. I may or may not have positions in some, all, or none of these names at any given time…
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Getting Really Long Oil, Really Really Soon

It’s days away, maybe a week, depends on what the dollar does. But I think…since… …the volatility of oil has collapsed: and since the curve is also collapsing… I feel it is likely a smart time to buy at least half as much 2012 crude oil call verticals, as I ever plan on owning. I’ll save [...]
Also posted in Future, Oil, options | Leave a comment

1st Seven Days?

…and 183 to go, how is my short TNA short TZA pair trade going? Rather well, thanks for asking.  Even if we get half the decay we’ve seen in the last 7 days, every seven days, the pair will erode to 41% of their value from today. (((-6.7% / 2) + 1) ^ (183 / 7)) [...]
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My Sony…wins…with a capital BOOYAH

So, beginning of this year, I gave my Sony, exactly $10K USD to manage for me.  I was scared at first, to put a computer in charge of some of my money…you know, “What if it messed up?”, right? Below are the YTD results.  Not great, absolutely, but on a relative basis…it’s been on fire.  It danced magically, [...]
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Week over Week…tick by tick

Below, is just a slight bit of insight that I will command, once some more time and tape tick by. Plotted above are the S&P analysts’ estimates from the 7th against the 14th…for the S&P, below, is just financials. So, was the ~3% Week over Week in the S&P justified? Time will tell. Next up, i’ll be [...]
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Leaning Short

A comment I agree with…in reply to Tyler’s great post: <quote>  ”So GS paints the tape ahead of its capital raise, quants move to the sidelines without leverage, vanilla cash comes oops-ing out of money markets, the banks leak record earnings, and the market trends to break all VWAP dislocation records.” Bingo! GS called the top. Don’t forget to turn [...]
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Fun with Numbers: Financial Quarterlys

The web is a great place.  In less than 24 hours, from idea to beta, I programmed this.  I did it for less than obvious reasons.  Can you answer me, ‘was the recent surge in stock market prices accompanied by a surge in analysts quarterly earnings estimates?’  I can’t answer that, because I don’t know what [...]
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Oil Gets Taxed?

Soo…I spent the week, talking to some amazing new friends. 1. An engineer from Jacobs Engineering.  2. A doctor who works at the Aramco compound in Saudi Arabia.  3. An engineer who works here in Toronto in the industrial liquid storage industry -> ie a booming business to be in, if you’ve seen the oil contango curve. After a very [...]
Also posted in Economics, Macro, Oil | Leave a comment

IPO Zombies

2 days ago, I blogged that the IPO market died.  It’s died, like every business cycle in the past…so I’m sure, it will be back from the dead, in the next bull. In that post, I said I wanted to see data going back 20 years…about a day after my post, John E. Fitzgibbon Jr. at [...]
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Best Oil Proxy? Don’t get me started…

For those out looking for the best oil proxy…it seems like the Holy Grail. Likely because it is – think about it, you can’t buy oil, without having to pay to store it.  Anyway, this pdf should help, in your hunt/decision making/trading.  Keep in mind that PDF is written by the guys that want you to buy their Macro Shares [...]
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