Any heavy internet user, who likes thinking about humanity, will thoroughly enjoy this clip. Promise.
Of course the title of this post…is a subtle refrence to the greatest movie of all time. This TED talk, reminded me of it…just a little.
I was listening to an audio version of the economist, when I had to drop what I was doing when I heard them mention Prediction Markets. A quick google search pointed me to intrade.com. Very cool. People bid on contracts that expire at either 100 or 0. It’s a market for a betting pool as to the outcome of any event.
Check this out:
Now I’m no expert, but get long Obama, get long McCain that seems like a 3% yield arbitrage. One of them is going to win.
Stock Market participants are more likely to dig these insights:
I took the data from their “probability of a US recession in ‘08″, made a moving average, then took a derivative and smoothed that out too, then mapped it to the S&P.
It’s interesting to observe the causality get weaker as the contract gets closer to expiring.
Check out the earlier surges in the derivative, they appropriatly correlate, a bit at least, to the market then a reversal in the derivative means a local max or min - in some cases - in the S&P…it’s a stretch.
How do I get long Prediction Markets? I want to invest, in the actual exchange. What a cool system, I am enthusiastic about it’s growth and want to see it succeed.
If you think I’m making up the problem of water scarcity, or you think it’s a problem for places far far away, or it’s just another hippy trend that isn’t real - talk to the developers in California who have piles of wood stacked up that they can’t turn into houses because the state won’t approve “will-serve” letters. In other words, the state can’t promise they will serve fresh water. Trust me, the state has no motive to stop economic growth like this.
Desalination is the process by which most of the world will likely turn to, as they need fresh water. Not too many investments open to the retail investor, yet. But eyes are open, and ideas are rampant.
I already own Hyflux. And I’ll likely buy a little ERII if I can get it for anywhere near $6 upon the ipo.
But thinking outside the box here, I’d like to own the names selling the membranes, and doing the chlorination & dechlorination, or pH neutralization. My favorite idea on how to invest in desal is buy the guys handelling/channeling the brine. The brine is the salt the facilities need to deal with. Usually it means dumping it back in the ocean, which, on a conservation of mass basis looks okay, but studies have shown clouds of shrimp dieing and discoloration of beaches. Of course, less unique, you could own the names selling oil-less pumps. That seems easy.
Check out this facility in Cypress:
Check out this bore in Australia:
It’s what’s used to drill horizontal holes for the brine. Link to Source.
As oil rises, and urbanization trends continue, I’m thinking about what might happen. Shipping rates go up - duh. So, I think sales and margins will improve for concentrated solutions, where the competition selling finished products will be squeezed.
Eg. Canned frozen juice vs the 2L of ready to drink stuff. If you have to ship 2L, you’ll pay more to ship a very comparable product.
…just thinking out loud…likely many have thought about this already…it just hit me today.
Put me down on the ‘ambassador’ list. How can we give credible hope to the bottom billion? Alliance of Compassion & Enlightened Self Interest. Watch this until the end, think hard about the Nokia advertisement at the end, and have a good weekend!
So, ‘Blank Check’ Company, Heckmann Corp. (HEK) recently announced they bought a Water Bottling company in China. I’m like - wow - what a great business to be in right now. Probably a scam. The chart exploded this morning. Some heavy money traded the shares north of $8.50, then it pulled back to ‘pre-publicized’ levels of $8.25. I figure 1. What a scam, these guys are investing in a likely trend/shell company, which their brother in law probably owned. If it is legit, it’s likely a great investment - anybody in charge of a ‘blank check’ likely knows what they are doing. If their crooks - no way did they go to all that trouble for the shares to peak at $8. If they aren’t crooks, same holds. So since it went back to pre-publicized levels, I bought a few shares at $8.2799. I especially liked the fact that I could consume everything in current circulation, in english, in less than an hour. It has just become my smallest holding, my biggest gamble, and most un-researched purchase. According to Lindzon, due diligence if for underperformers, lets see if he’s right. I’m literally gambling with ~1.5% of my portfolio…so blow on the dice for me…I know it’s wrong…and I’d never do this with other peoples money.
Plus, the downside shouldn’t be worse than the lows during the chart where the company was just a blank check. That’s $7.22. Soooo…yaaah. D
I specifically watch the advertisements on TED, because the companies sponsoring this stuff, deserve my eyeballs for a few extra seconds. Watch this video.
I can’t for the life of me own a stock where the PEs are higher than the temperature of the energy source they are trying to harvest from. Solar stocks are in the stratosphere, I thought about buying FSLR and writing the calls, but I don’t quite want $27.5K dedicated to one position….nor the downside.
That leads me to thinking about the companies who will benefit from Solar.
During the tech boom, we all poured money into innovation, and it’s why the internet runs so smoothly today. Without the fiber optic cable all the big boys paid to lay with share holder money, well, I might not be blogging right now. Most of the guys that did the leg work to set up the networks had major problems reaping the revenue when they commoditized their product. Turns out, some of them went bankrupt, and since you can’t pull up already laid cable the bankrupt companies were sold off by banks for pennies on the dollar.
Same thing is likely starting now, we’re pouring money into solar stocks, and the innovation from the money will eventually lead to grid parity solar energy prices.
So when this grid parity happens - who wins? That’s a million dollar question we got a little time to think about.
Anybody want to discuss? Any ideas? I’m looking for names who are going to install these products and improve margins as they sell un-used energy back to the grid.
In a global economy, if you’re not adding value, you’re going to be left behind. If you don’t carve out a niche for your own importance, well…there’s a bunch of Indians and Chinese who are going to out-run you. Totally serious, trends are scary, education is being commoditized. Make no mistake, if you are not a leader, you will be forced into the opposite. For the followers, or the ones not adding value, the world will make sure to it that your life will suck…I’m talking to the growd under 30 and not a millionair or happily married.
I’m 23, ready to start making impact. I’ve got a modest advantage compared to my peers financially, so I’ve got to put it towards good use. Nothing was ever handed to me, I worked hard…so don’t hate.
The question is, what niche do I carve myself?
Right now, I’m thinking Solar, Wind, or Water. These are areas that are going to be important for the next 100 years, at least…(right?)
Thanks to my diverse degree in engineering, I’d understand the technology deep at the roots of every one of these topics, but now which one should I run with?
Yah the capitalist in me knows that if you become an expert in any of these fields, it should lead to amazing returns in the ‘folio…BUT it will also lead to opportunities to contribute to society some way some how - obviously, as an engineer, I’m speaking in context of innovation but, but I mean I don’t want to waste my brain, time or money on designing the next UI for RIM, or checking sodium meta bi-sulphate levels at Ontario Power…been there done that. That work is for [educated] zombies. Like, actually do some good for the world….somehow…down the road. And maybe, i’ll never get my shot at it, but experts are tomorrows’ change agents…so I’d rather open the door, leave the option, to potentially become a change agent reather than definately stay a zombie.
I’m talking about marrying a trend here, for life, and serious about it…like…live, eat, and breath a trend…so I can have a chance to make impact. I’m talking present value.
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