I queried several venture capitalists, who see literally thousands and thousands of business proposals. While lots of people are working on it, they are aware of nothing on the near horizon. Water may be my #1 concern about the future. It is an intractable problem and one that must be solved. There is Microsoft- or Google-type wealth awaiting the team that creates an inexpensive way to purify water. Water management will be a major issue in the future. There are those who think we will go to war over oil or energy in the future. I rather doubt it. Water rights are going to be the issue that will divide nations and peoples unless we can find new technologies to create cheap supplies of fresh water and move it to where it is needed.

I’m not sure anybody noticed, but the backwardation on 30 year treasury futures, has become more grave over the last month or so, going into expiry of the december contract. Read the tea leaves as you like. Future demand for government paper, is declining.

I think it might very well be, the eye of the inflation storm…brace yourself.

Also, check out Gregor’s words of wisdom…

Best June on record, for Toronto real-estate. 

Update: No, I don’t really believe, that boom times are here.

I want to make sure everybody I know, who wants to learn, understands how bond duration and intrest rate risk combined with the current economic storm…is creating a dramatic climax and great opportunity out of the last 27 year bull market in fixed income products sold by the US Government.

So…if you start learning about the market on your own, and are curious about the derivative products available…just let me know, feel free to e-mail.

I’m going to put this trade on, on Monday.

I like brazil because of their energy reserves…but a little worried about how much water they waste.  Only 2nd to China, in terms on Non-revenue water levels.

I’d love to sit down with one of these California farmers, and say something like “What exactly do you expect Arnold to do, about the environment you chose to farm in?  What exactly do you expect Arnold to do, about too many people living in an area that can’t sustain anymore growth? What exactly do you expect Arnold to do with a collapsed budget, peaky state, and energy costs rising? Is it maybe time, to move your farm, to where there is water rather than move the water to you? Yah, I realize, the mouths will have to follow the farm, sooner or later they’ll get the idea.  Promise, energy prices will see to it.”

Could expensive energy be behind us?

Look up the history, on how the internet got so cheap.  Recall: an investment boom of people looking to catch the trend, without enough demand (at the time), sent many of the hard assets the investors put money into back to the banks.  The banks sold assets off for $0.10 on the dollar, to new investors who gave away the service until economies of scale kicked in.

What if the ceiling is now $65, on the price of oil?

What will that do to the growth of civilization? Demand for commodities? Water? Technology?  What if energy isn’t the bottled neck that stops our growth?

What if economies of scale make our planet more effecient, as the population doubles quicker and quicker?

What if space, physical square footage, is the finite resource we one day value the highest?

If we hit 200 people / Km squared, assuming that’s where space will start to become a problem, that will mean ~30B people. 80 years of 1.9% population growth and we’re there.

So, what will it be, energy? water? both? or space?

Update: I started playing with the world usage stats, from 1993…from Wikipedia:

I don’t know how it totals to 107%, so for argument sake, lets just say Other is 26%, because the data doesn’t show a “rural” area, and lets set permanent pastures to 23%.  Both of these assumptions, are likely more conservative…for my argument I’m about to make. So, we have:

Redefining the 26% and 32% (58% total) as “free and ready to turn into effecient crops or efficient cities at the drop of a hat”, then  58% of the planet left to violate, and turn into crops.  So, if we did that, it would take 2.4x the current population to use up all the land, using the ratios we currently use.  That means 3.6% of the land will need to house 16.3B people, or living conditions of 3000 people per Km squared of urban land or ~109 people per square Km of land, footprint wise.

50 years, at 1.8% population growth, and we’re there. Huh. And, I’d say, my asumptions were very conservative.  100% of the land, isn’t livable nor farmable…sooo…shit, should I be buying farm land instead of oil? Screw dollars, gold, education…real stores of wealth will be in memories and real-estate.