Step Away From the Fiat

In a recent Economist, they estimated that Americans spend a total of 7.6B hours per year on their own taxes.  That’s 3.8M full-time worker years.  Too funny. By that measure, it’s 6 times larger, than the car industry.

For the first time in a long time, I’m writing my thoughts before I head off to work…we had a big pop in domestic government paper less than 24 hours ago…against the back-drop of a FED talking about higher rates…of course, the greek contagion is the worries causing the flight to “quality”…but THIS AM, we’re seeing traders unwind or speculate on the opposite… WHILE panic heightens in europe.  Normally, this would happen afterwards.  The interesting thing, is that government paper was a place to park capital yesterday, but in less than 24 hours we’re seeing that notion reverse.  Oil’s continueing it’s slide, and volatility is picking up, so I’m down big time this week so far.  Domestic equities aren’t selling off, yet. 

That’s the wild part.  It’s the disconnect. 

It’s as if, traders are acknolwedging 3 things simultaneously,

“1 – Panic in Europe is contained to Europe. 2 -This won’t hurt US capitalism, that much.3 - I changed my mind about parking wealth in US paper.”

Of course, this is as of 7 AM EST, and within 30 minutes all these observations could be out the window.

I’m leaning towards believing, that the treasury traders are calling the move yesterday over-done, as this Greek problem will be taken care of.  If  they are right, I think the only smart move for money left, will be to take oil back up $1.50 from here.  Currently sitting at $82 as I write, of course, panic, by it’s very nature is unpredictable.

30 year: Top, then sell off.

Equities: Sell off, then capitulate.

Commodities: Find support, then catch a bid.

…we passed 7 Billion people on earth.

I just happened to google the population of the world, today, found that site. Weird coincidence.

Anyway, we’re less than a decade from 8 B. 

Get long the flow.

Particularly enjoyed, Micheal White’s post.

But, please, start at the beginning.

Goal for 2011. I think I can.