Archive for March, 2010

A Much Safer Yield, Hello EFPs

Thursday, March 25th, 2010

I want, all the [intelligent] risk-averse, retail investors I know, to take a look at the new (to me) “vehicle”, if you can call it that, available through Interactive Brokers. They are calling them EFPs.

EFP – Exchange For Physical.

They are bundelling single-stock futures, with equities, into one trading instrument – and making these instruments screenable. I’ve never traded single-stock futures, or even known anybody who has. I don’t know, how liquid they are, but as far as I’m aware, they work like every other form of futures contract. For those who don’t know what a Futures contract is, let me explain. When you go to the furniture store, and put a deposit down, to buy a piece of furniture, to be delivered in the future, you’ve just initiated a futures contract between you furniture store. They are going to deliver your furniture, and you’ll pay them on delivery. This is how oil is traded. It’s how copper is traded. It’s how most things which are difficult to deliver, and even some things which are easy to deliver, is traded. So, if you owned a big stack of stock certificates, it might be easier for you, to trade a futures contract, in order to get rid of them. That’s a single stock futures contract. Now, say, you want to sell your 100 shares of GOOG, and the current bid is exactly $500. Assume you don’t need the money, for at least a month. You take a look at the single stock futures, and somebody out there is willing to buy 100 shares of GOOG, in 30 days, for $505. Maybe, they don’t have the money TODAY, but really want to buy some GOOG. You hit the bid on that contract, now you’re locked into giving them your GOOG in 30 days, in exchange for $505 per share. You’ve just made, 1%, in 30 days. Between now and then, GOOG goes up – they profit, GOOG goes down – they lose, you get your 1% for waiting. IB is bundelling, these single stock futures, and equities, into one bid and ask. So, you can buy that GOOG, and sell that Single Stock Futures, in the same trasaction – knowing exactly what yield you’ll get ahead of time.

Now, be aware, liquidity, will likely trap you in until expiry. So, be prepared to HOLD.

They are basically, allowing traders, to buy and sell liquidity and/or arbitrage the financing rates for lending equity. I think it’s a bid, for the industry, to reduce the rates paid to finance shorted equities – by allowing retail to get in on the action.

The yield you can earn, is right now, in the high single digits per year. It could even approach 12% to 15%, per year. A little low, for my tastes, but great for many people I know.

If you have any questions, leave it in the comment to this post, or contact IB. From what I can see, this definately makes far more sense than using a savings account. I can’t see a way, that your principle could be at risk – other than if you want to exit, before the expiry of the futures contract.

YES – if you’ve never traded futures, this post, will sound complicated to you. I guarantee, if you’re reading this blog, you can figure it out. I also guarantee, you’ll be impressed when you do figure it out, with how simple it actually is.

Please consult a registered financial planner, before making any investment decisions.

Name an Asset Class You Feel Is Cheap. Can you do it?

Wednesday, March 24th, 2010

Cause that’s the asset, which will catch a bid, as treasuries unwind.

This has to be the biggest move down in at least a year.

This has to be the biggest move up in at least a year.

Shot Gun Oil.

RapidMiner, Rejoice

Sunday, March 21st, 2010

…late one Saturday night…geekdom took over. I decided to take up the recommendation, of one of my best friends…and download RapidMiner.

I’ve never touched, an official data mining software package before. Unless you count Excel, R, Mathematica or Matlab. My friend was right (like always), I’m going to like this new tool.

Check out the screenshots, of my 2nd hour using it.

This is going to be legen...WAIT FOR IT...

This is going to be legen...WAIT FOR IT...

DAIRY

DAIRY

Correlations

Wednesday, March 17th, 2010

…are out of whack.

I’m reading the tea leaves…as government paper is screaming, “Only morons are buying stocks right now”.

My $0.02.

Jobs data, and CPI, better be fantastic tomorrow…or else, stocks are going to come down hard.

On moderately better than consensus data – stocks flat, oil flat, treasuries down.
On moderately worse than consensus data – stocks down lots, oil flat to moderately lower, and treasuries moderately higher.

I don’t see a case where stocks take off north. Of course, a huge surprise would do it, but it’ll have to be a monumental surprise.

Updated at 8:38 PM EST.

Solve for Implied Volatility in R

Sunday, March 7th, 2010

I have written a fairly basic “Effective Position & Risk Management System” in R, for managing asset positions with several option legs.
Every morning, it paints me a pie chart of where I’m getting my theta decay, as well as my effective exposure to each of the major asset classes.

One of the requirements, is calculating the Implied Volatility of each option. I found some approximations, interesting, but none seem to be as intelligent as using a brute force method or bi-section method.

I wrote a recursive function and used it for a month, but it took forever, or got lost and produced errors. Obviously, I was faced with playing with step size/factor and accuracy trade-offs.

So, I’m currently using a brute-force method, which seems to work well and faster than the recursive algorithm. It’s not perfect, but it’s working. If anybody out there on the interwebs has a better or more beautiful solution, let me know. Here it is:

FindIV <- function(OptionMarketPrice, AssetPrice, Time, Strike, r, LowRange, HighRange, Right)
{
Range <- seq(LowRange,HighRange,by=((HighRange-LowRange)/100000))
OptionBasedOnGuess <- GBSOption(Right, AssetPrice, Strike, Time, r, 0.000, Range, "wtf", "xx")
Error <- OptionBasedOnGuess@price - OptionMarketPrice
Key <- which.min(abs(Error))
Range[Key]
}

Don’t Take My Word For It

Saturday, March 6th, 2010

In John Mauldin’s most recent letter, he had these wise words (among others) to offer…

I queried several venture capitalists, who see literally thousands and thousands of business proposals. While lots of people are working on it, they are aware of nothing on the near horizon. Water may be my #1 concern about the future. It is an intractable problem and one that must be solved. There is Microsoft- or Google-type wealth awaiting the team that creates an inexpensive way to purify water. Water management will be a major issue in the future. There are those who think we will go to war over oil or energy in the future. I rather doubt it. Water rights are going to be the issue that will divide nations and peoples unless we can find new technologies to create cheap supplies of fresh water and move it to where it is needed.