Monthly Archives: January 2010

Saudis say…

Forget about it. Don’t worry. Be happy. Take another drag.
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How will the Next 54 Years Play Out?

I can only imagine, the models built, to forecast the growth rate in the consumption of oil. Considering the multi-variable model, exhausts my cognitive ability. I’m sure more resourceful men than I, have studied the problem deeper. However, every now and again, I like crunching some numbers. You know, ball park, back of the number [...]
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Outlook? I got one…

My humble outlook, for the next 4.33 weeks of trading …the March Gold Contract settles above 1100, the March 30 year treasury settles below 118′000, and oil settles above $77… Place your bets. Those are mine. I’ll roll if I have to. I’m staying away from equities, still.
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Can’t Sleep…so I’m reading about BIDU and GOOG…

If that isn’t a reason, not to trade equities I don’t know what is. Say you had BIDU on short, or GOOG on long…you will wake up tomorrow, pissed off. Maybe. Or maybe the market will take both of them higher. Or lower. It’s the lessons in causality, that most [...]
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Uh Oh

…this scares me.
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Tax a Foreclosure, Not a Trade

The recent talk of a transaction tax, has me sick to my stomach. Make it harder for a home-owner to walk away from their mortgage. You can do this with policy, not a tax. Make it harder for a lender to give a loan to somebody who can’t afford it. You can do this with [...]
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Come Join Me

If you’re with a broker, who charges double digit transaction fees – leave them. I recommend Interactive Brokers. Don’t take my word for it, check out slide 13, from the deck IB put together in November [pdf]. [click to enlarge] I also want to point out, regardless of your broker, the average trader actually beat the [...]
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A Decade Later…

I thought the highlights, from this decade wrap-up were interesting. These are annualized returns, for different vehicles. 1. Gold Futures 14% 2. Hedge Funds 6.3% 3. Treasury Notes 6.1% 4. 19 Raw Materials 3.3% 5. Mutual Funds 1.7% 6. The S&P, including dividends -0.9% Oil Futures put up 12% annualized returns (approx $25 in dec 1999, to $80 now…excluding cost to [...]
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