Archive for May, 2009

Nuclear Decisions

Sunday, May 31st, 2009

June is going to be a historic month, for Ontario, and Canada’s Nuclear industry…and the wicked web of possibilities is getting weary with every way of weaving.

See, the crown is putting up AECL for sale, simultaneously, during the decision making of who wins the work at Darlington. Areva, Westinghouse and AECL are the bidders, and the stakes are high.

My hypothesis is that AECL will win the work and then Westinghouse, Areva, and/or GE will come in with bids for AECL – and this is exactly how the government wants to see it played out…because a competitive AECL, with better access to capital, and smarter risk management, combined with a notch under its belt from a sale of the ACR1000 would launch Canada foward in the nuclear energy industry.

The Biggest Opportunity Right Now

Monday, May 25th, 2009

…is the downside in US Debt.

I want to make sure everybody I know, who wants to learn, understands how bond duration and intrest rate risk combined with the current economic storm…is creating a dramatic climax and great opportunity out of the last 27 year bull market in fixed income products sold by the US Government.

lambo

So…if you start learning about the market on your own, and are curious about the derivative products available…just let me know, feel free to e-mail.

Buy-Write Brazil

Sunday, May 24th, 2009

The run in emerging markets, is no doubt, just getting started.  While there might be a pull-back, short-term, I think it’s worth hitting some EWZ and/or some 2011 $50 strikes….while selling front months, of course.  Does anybody really hold equity, without selling front months?

I’m going to put this trade on, on Monday.

I like brazil because of their energy reserves…but a little worried about how much water they waste.  Only 2nd to China, in terms on Non-revenue water levels.

Recover, or not to Recover?

Thursday, May 21st, 2009

I’m busy these days…here’s my current outlook, and it’s time to execute. Get it ?

if(Recovery == Soon)

{

IntrestRates(Up); //Putting Pressure On Dollar

Commodities(Demand); //Putting Pressure On Dollar

Inflation(High); //Putting Pressure On Dollar, destroying purchasing power

USAStocks(10% + EPS(FX_Earnings_Gains));

}

elseif(Recovery != Soon)

{

PrintingPresses(On); //putting pressure on the dollar

USGovernmentDebt(SupplyPressure); //putting downward pressure on bond market, upside for rates, pressure on dollar.

USAStocks(Flatline); //making market neutral strategies name of the game

if(PressureOnDollar == High){Commodities(Up);}

}

else

{

EndOfKnownEconomics(DollarUp,StocksUp,MoneyStaysCheapForever,USAWinsAgain);

JeffLosesShirt(2009);

}

double RunInvestmentThesis(Dollar,Bonds,Commodities,Stocks)

{

//Notice this function, is written such that, the results work with or without a recovery…so they don’t even use the global variable inputs.

Profits = ShortCalls({116′320,118′000},5 Year Treasury Notes);

Profits = ShortPuts({$55,$60},Crude Oil Futures) + Profits;

Profits = ShortCalls({950,970},S&P Futures) + Profits:

do while(t <= infinite) {CaptureTheta(&Profits);}

return Profits;

}

Employed. Now, PlayPumps & Moku Gifts Update

Wednesday, May 20th, 2009

If you’re one of the 50 or so people who reached out, or one of the 200 people who downloaded my resume while I was job hunting, THANKS! You’ll be interested to know, that despite my best efforts, the upside I was hoping for by leveraging the charities, didn’t come to fruition. 

But, I am employed, and back on my feet, at least for now.  It’s an 8 month contract that I hope to turn into longer term.

BUT, even tho my plan failed, and it didn’t lead to a job…or even a single interview, I’m still going to carry through with my pledges to the charities.  Starting at the end of this month, since I have a job now.

That said, I’m pretty sure half of the last 100 followers, have been bots…who, guaranteed, did not care about my job search.

I have to give a special thanks again to Scott Anderson,  Steve Case, Ross Greenspan and Mike Sinclair and everybody else who tried to help…

Also, PS, I took the post down…because, in hindsight, it wreaked of desperation. 

Richard St. John on Success

Sunday, May 17th, 2009

H/T Maoxian

TED Talk

My Tool Belt I’m Stalking

Wednesday, May 13th, 2009

CCC TTEK NLC FSLR HEK ERII GLD CL/LO TBT SRS AMZN CVA VE Hyflux Vestas JEC RIG RIMM AUY CCJ ITU CREE

 …and precisely 93 other water stocks.

I may or may not have positions in some, all, or none of these names at any given time…

Getting Really Long Oil, Really Really Soon

Tuesday, May 5th, 2009

It’s days away, maybe a week, depends on what the dollar does. But I think…since…

…the volatility of oil has collapsed:

and since the curve is also collapsing…

I feel it is likely a smart time to buy at least half as much 2012 crude oil call verticals, as I ever plan on owning. I’ll save half my powder, for when my position gets cut in half. Crossing fingers I get the chance to.

Which is cooler Bahrain or Dubai?

Sunday, May 3rd, 2009

Doesn’t matter, both are uber cool stories to me.

Below, is a desal plant, in Bahrain. It produces 60 Million Gallons of H2O per day. See, Bahrain, was not as cursed by the dutch disease as Dubai is.  That’s why, this plant, is extra cool in my eyes.

AlHidd

Photo curtousy of Sidem.