Monthly Archives: April 2009

Changing Time

I’ve never put too much weight on where to cover my naked option positions…I’m going to try, holding out, to cover, when delta measured in %/% equals theta measure in %/day, on an absolute basis. That is all.
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Pissed Farmers

While 1500 farmers are offing themselves…California farmers are protesting. I’d love to sit down with one of these California farmers, and say something like “What exactly do you expect Arnold to do, about the environment you chose to farm in?  What exactly do you expect Arnold to do, about too many people living in an area [...]
Posted in Desalination, Economics | Tagged | Leave a comment

Equals

10 x 10 – 9 x 9 + 8 x 8 – 7 x 7 + 6 x 6 – 5 x 5 + 4 x 4 - 3 x 3 + 2 x 2 - 1 x 1 = 10 + 9 + 8 + 7 +  6 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 1 = the number [...]
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1st Seven Days?

…and 183 to go, how is my short TNA short TZA pair trade going? Rather well, thanks for asking.  Even if we get half the decay we’ve seen in the last 7 days, every seven days, the pair will erode to 41% of their value from today. (((-6.7% / 2) + 1) ^ (183 / 7)) [...]
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My Sony…wins…with a capital BOOYAH

So, beginning of this year, I gave my Sony, exactly $10K USD to manage for me.  I was scared at first, to put a computer in charge of some of my money…you know, “What if it messed up?”, right? Below are the YTD results.  Not great, absolutely, but on a relative basis…it’s been on fire.  It danced magically, [...]
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Week over Week…tick by tick

Below, is just a slight bit of insight that I will command, once some more time and tape tick by. Plotted above are the S&P analysts’ estimates from the 7th against the 14th…for the S&P, below, is just financials. So, was the ~3% Week over Week in the S&P justified? Time will tell. Next up, i’ll be [...]
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Long the SLIP!

Its sickening to look back at the last 5 months of tape and be up only low double digits, there were many opportunities for traders and investors…it has been a ton of work to stay ahead, especially relative to how easy it would have been to be long the slippage that happens in the vehicles [...]
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What if Oil hasn’t bottomed?

Consider for a moment, hypothetically that the recent spike in oil brought just enough investment to solar and oil both, that combined with the supply side of oil, and solar R&D…could solar potentially be ready to breach a tipping point, towards grid parity? Could expensive energy be behind us? Look up the history, on how the internet got so cheap.  Recall: [...]
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Leaning Short

A comment I agree with…in reply to Tyler’s great post: <quote>  ”So GS paints the tape ahead of its capital raise, quants move to the sidelines without leverage, vanilla cash comes oops-ing out of money markets, the banks leak record earnings, and the market trends to break all VWAP dislocation records.” Bingo! GS called the top. Don’t forget to turn [...]
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Fun with Numbers: Financial Quarterlys

The web is a great place.  In less than 24 hours, from idea to beta, I programmed this.  I did it for less than obvious reasons.  Can you answer me, ‘was the recent surge in stock market prices accompanied by a surge in analysts quarterly earnings estimates?’  I can’t answer that, because I don’t know what [...]
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