Monthly Archives: January 2009

Some reasons to sell Amazon puts right now

By Jeffrey McLarty | Published: January 27, 2009
- Debut of Kindle2 is yet to be announced - Ebooks are finally taking off. - Kindle sales is starting to have small material impact on revenue, as the digital inventory is reaching a tipping point - Cloud Computing is the next big thing (if ebooks arent) - And, urbanization trends are still clipping along, reducing delivery time.  One more reason, to shop online. Anyway…for [...]
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More Certainty in Gold than Oil

By Jeffrey McLarty | Published: January 26, 2009
Reflecting on the post by Gregor, where he noted that gold was buying too much oil.The option market seems to think, that there is more uncertainty in the price of oil, than gold.  I’d like to point out, that plotting them on the same graph, has very little value.It’s the range where they currently sit, relative [...]
Posted in Gold, Oil, Volatility | Leave a comment

Roubini’s hot hand blows up in 2009

By Jeffrey McLarty | Published: January 23, 2009
“Global equities will fall 20 percent [~650 on S&P] this year from current levels” – Roubini What a statement.  He might be right, because he’s got a hot hand, is well educated, and people are listening to him.  But there are 11 strategists just as educated, forecasting a target of 1050 on the S&P by year end. But for [...]
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Options on Twitter

By Jeffrey McLarty | Published: January 15, 2009
I’ll be using a code, on twitter, for options dialogue.  Since, all my followers are the smartest people I’ve met, I likely don’t have to explain it.  But, incase anybody has any better ideas…well, chime in. Template Option # 1————————————- $AAPL###XMMMYY  …where X = C/P, ### = strike, MMM[12] = {JAN, FEB,…}, YY = Year, yes, we [...]
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And there it is, Nikkei vs 10 yr

By Jeffrey McLarty | Published: January 4, 2009
click to enlarge 
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Path of the Planet

By Jeffrey McLarty | Published: January 3, 2009
This post will come as no surprise to Engineers who have studied controls, or to others like Nate Hagens and Gregor Macdonald.  But, looking at the earth like a multi-variable-non-linear system, with feedback loops designed to keep her in equilibrium, have been struck by the equivalent of a delta function it has never felt before. See, when [...]
Posted in Engineering, Future | Leave a comment

Buy-Write Bad-Wrap

By Jeffrey McLarty | Published: January 3, 2009
Now I know why the buy-write strategy gets such a bad wrap – idiots are running them. Take a look at 2 years of data. It’s generally expected to underperperform in a low IV and/or strong bull market, but what were they doing during April and October of 2005? If you’re running a buy-write, and the fund underperforms [...]
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Behold…it starts!

By Jeffrey McLarty | Published: January 2, 2009
What was it, like less than a week ago, when the online discussion steered towards getting all aboard an increase/creation of gas/oil taxes (depending on the state), and I said they just need to spin right way.  Well…ta da.
Posted in Economics, Oil | Leave a comment