…here they are, in no particular order:
1. Oil bottoms, and by the end of 2009, everyone is shocked by the extremes in price it reached…to the downside AND THEN to upside. V / U shape. The media will create a buzzword, which is some derivative of ’supply-crisis’. An oil tax is proposed, and highly debated.
5. Whenever treasuries crash, and they will in 2009, the inflation trade will get really loud. This will do curious things to the TIPS.
6. AFAM turns into one of the new leaders in the equities, when it finally reaches retarded multiples, porter’s five forces begin to kick in, and eventually the stock crashes…similar to CROX, DRYS, GRMN, HANS, FSLR…etc.
10. ERII reaches retarded multiples, but porter’s five forces have a little more trouble catching up.
2. Volatility continues as information continues to flow faster.
8. the 2008 cheap idle resources (labour, commodities) + simultaneous government spending + money expansion, goes down in history as the cause of the largest global ex-US build-out ever seen, which starts in 2009…Sadly, the US is forced to strangle it’s own recovery by raising rates towards the end of 2009. Equities eventually price this in, and all targets turn out to be useless, cause it’s all just a function of what investors will pay for risk. If you think you can predict what investors will pay for risk by end of 2009, or maybe the eps of the S&P, please get louder – if you can.
3. The strong form efficient market hypothesis strengthens, as information continues to flow faster.
4. The loudest predictions made in the media, come to fruition by mid year, then unwind. Like gold did in 2008.
9. Something’s got to go wrong with the triple and double ETFs…2009 could be the year.
7. HEK gets coverage, and marginally misses their 2009 targets. They buy back stock, warrants. Then, by end of year, they begin to up their own guidance for 2010…only to blow away the numbers in 2010.
11. Ironically, 2009, turns out to be the year the MOST predictions turn out wrong…ever.
12. Buy & holders give up, only market participants left, are short term traders.
…what do you guys got?