I went long, highly leveraged gold, early 2007 - got out when we breached $950/oz, a week or two ago. A few days early, but still not bad. Smarter men called a local top better than I, which was only 2 or 3 days later. I proved to myself that it’s actually possible to triple your money in less than a year, but it’s NOT for the faint of heart. I won’t likely won’t ever try again, my life has been a mess watching and following it. I say that, but I’m a bit of an adrenaline junkie (not a cowboy, there’s a difference) so I’m probably not being completely honest.
The play is a story to tell, and one can quickly look back at the headlines. I was long Northern Orion 2010 warrants, they turned into Yamana 2010 warrants.
I can’t stress this observation enough; I’ve noticed for a few years now, the last 2 weeks of December, and the first 2 weeks of January, everybody and there dog, comes out with predictions for the year. When there is a consensus amongst the predictions - jump on it, because the market will make it happen. The prediction this year was $1000/oz in 2008…it’s only march and we already saw it come true. I also twittered that I’m shorting puts in Yamana a bit ago, I went short July $19 puts for $2.50. It turned out-bad timing, but I’m not leveraged, I’m long. It’s because I still think there’s upside ahead of this short term pull-back. There’s a difference between being 3:1 bullish, and 1:1 bullish.
I also have had a horrible call. Sandvine, which I’m sadly holding…but I knew getting in it’s a 10 year story - so I’m giving it +10 years. I’m down pretty big right now. I have faith in Waterloo. I have faith that the Internet is growing too fast, and solutions need to be sold to fix it, I hope Sandvine steps up as a leader. That’s all I’m doing - hoping, is that smart - probably not. Should I have sold with profits a long time ago - yes. Live and learn.
I’m now calling, and re-iterating that we’re seeing a market bottom here real soon. Ie, sometime in the next month or so, if not already behind us (this week). Good stocks are getting cheap, we’re going to capitulate, but I see a light at the end of the tunnel - and a bull is on it’s way. Smart men a buying. Buffet just made his largest purchase of his own stock, which is essentially a hand-picked S&P. One fund runner I know is launching a new billion dollar fund starting in May. He picked may, to fix his broken rep.
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