Leveraged Theta

It has hit me like a ton of bricks in the last few days as to one hypothesis why some groups of people are successful, and some aren’t.  I wish it had a less silly name associated with the theory, but it doesn’t:  Animal Spirits.   Please read this entire post, because I tie in RIM, the rise and fall of Rome, immigration, Google Reader, a couple millionaires I know, and the University of Waterloo all in one broken up thought to deliver a punch line and a message.

In Larry Smith’s economics class he discusses immigration with respect to the type of people that immigrate.  Picture this scene, in a third world country: 

“Hey Mr. A, this food sucks, I can’t get enough clean water, and I can’t feed my kids properly”. 
“Ok, Mr. B, let’s get out of here, I’m serious, I can’t take it, let’s pack our bags and take off”. 
“Maybe tomorrow Mr. A, I’m tired”. 
“Mr. B, I’m tired too, but I’m packing tonight, good-bye”. 

The point is, the people that don’t mind the uncertainty, the risk, they are the leaders. The entrepreneurial people don’t “Take it”.  They move, improve, innovate and think-outside the box.  This combined with geography and political laws create geographic sub-sets of culture where “Animal Spirits” exist in larger ratios forming pools of talent and leaders, leaving deficits behind from where they left.

I know many living examples of success, and likely you do too, and most stories start with “When they/she/he/I moved…”. My girlfriend’s father, he’s a leader, and a humble successful person who moved across the ocean decades ago to start a new life in North America.  Howard Lindzon, a Canadian who moved from Toronto to New York and/or Phoenix. It would take another 1000 words to describe him and his decisions towards success. But again more humble success, a leader with what seems like infinite ideas and entrepreneurial spirit.  My Uncle, left the quiet town of Ridgetown, Ontario for Alberta to pursue real-estate investments and eventually owned malls ahead of the boom out there.  He now moves condos like hotcakes in Hawaii, 10’s and 100’s at a time, it seems like.  Again, more humble success harvested from his ability to relocate geographically and unafraid of uncertainty.

The rise and fall of Rome supports this hypothesis too, so I’m told.  I’m no expert, but they conquered, explored, and learned at an uncanny rate compared to their peers in other lands.  They apparently laughed in the face of uncertainty, and were prepared to move geographically as they explored and conquered.  It’s likely debatable on how humble the Romans were but none the less it’s amazing what they accomplished.  The fall of Rome supports the theory too.  The fall began with triumphs from a really small group of barbarians that were sick of standing by and watching the success of their neighbors, so despite the barbarians own uncertainty they moved.

This happens on more local scales as well.  I had peers five years ago that chose their post secondary education based on several factors.  Some wanted certainty, both location and price, and chose the local school.  While some people chose Waterloo.  Why is Waterloo different than every other school?  The unique & mandatory co-op process.  It creates huge uncertainty, and the students accept it.  Students in Engineering at Waterloo have to complete 6, 4 month co-op terms.  They go through real, competitive interviews, where their fate is eventually left up to employer’s offers & ranking, and a computer algorithm that breaks ties.  That means, one night every four months, a large chunk of the students go to sleep unsure which employers will make offers and what the computer will spit out as matches.  They go to sleep not knowing what town or company they will be working in, or for, for 4 months of their future.  That’s character building, it’s humbling, and it’s largely filled with uncertainty.  So, you essentially have people that chose the path of uncertainty (that is, to come to Waterloo) that the co-op process brings.  I have to believe this is why Waterloo ranks so high in school rankings everywhere, and why employers come to Waterloo expecting the best.  They are unknowingly looking for talent, that selected themselves into a pool of made-to-order animal spirits.

One more example RIM:  Founded and built on the talent from the pool of Animal Spirits in Waterloo from people that moved from all over the world to get here.

An amazing book I just picked up links the themes of uncertainty and success, right down to zebras.   This may be just a poetic metaphor and biologically untrue, I have no idea, but apparently zebras move in heard and all individually have a choice.  The choice to pick where they each stand relative to the heard.  To stay in the middle of the heard means not getting enough fresh unstamped grass to eat nor making any decisions. While staying on the outside means getting the first bite of grass and potentially becoming lunch for a lion.  Think about it.  Think about the uncertainty and risk associated with the success of the Zebra standing on the edge of the heard vs. the middle of the heard.

So, with a new perspective on looking for traits that build success, you now have a gift from me to you, with which may come a realization and responsibility. If you’re now just realizing that you’re the type of person with Animal Spirit, that means you’re either already a leader, or about to become one.  Therein lies the responsibility, to lead.   I’m just saying this, because you need to be aware of the fact that you’re a leader, like it or not.  The list of responsibilities are not finite, and all surround the conscious decision to lead.  Please think about the impact of leading, to yourself for two minutes.    In case you need help realizing you’re a leader, read the next paragraph.  If you don’t, skip it.

If you’re a leader, you’re likely a contrarian.  You may or may not be mocked by others for thinking a little differently. You prefer to be known, rather than anonymous.  You’re busy.  You speak out, and speak up.  You communicate.  You learn.  You have energy and are driven.  You look for value.  You critique then create, rather than just critique.  You inform.  You don’t lean on people.  People lean on you.  You don’t mind being wrong, and can admit not knowing something.  You know things first.  You apologize and reflect upon wrong doing, but stand by your values. I hope this helps. These are just my observations.

Thanks for reading this far.   I’m done informing you now but while I have the attention of some leaders, I want to send a message: “keep reading, keep sharing, keep leading & realize the impact”.  The world will truly be a better place if leaders shared what they read with everybody, including other leaders.  To help with this, I like Google Reader, it lets you read, it lets you share what you read. All leaders should/will learn how to use RSS, efficiently.   This message stems on the idea of the responsibilities of leaders.  Think about the impact of news, media, and books.  Now realize, the masses are not leaders.  Imagine the difference we could make if the people with “Animal Spirit” had a bigger impact on the flow of information.   Google Reader, I believe, can put a tiny dent into making an impact like this.

Ok, I’m done, and thanks for hearing my two cents.