Leveraged Theta

Deutch Bank upgraded AMZN today…crap.  They are likely much more informed than I.

I’m starting to worry, I knew there would be short covering going on. AMZN is up 2% on the day, and I’ve lost the paper gains I had yesturday.  I’m break even on my short, and I’m recalling a time when I said to myself 8 months ago “Don’t touch anymore deal stocks”…and here I am “investing” in AMZN.  Everybody on the street is bearish on it, that’s bullish.  I got a hunch the CEO is going to come out pointing to the fence wether he thinks he can do it or not and the shorts will get slaughtered.  Myself included.  Then again, if I loose money, at least I can say…look at the valuation ratios before the call.  FPE of 31, PE of 85, Price to Cashflow of 32, Price to Book of 40.3 all according to morningstar.  Who knows what numbers they are using.  What’s a piss off is Yahoo’s FY2008 is $1.6, an FPE in the mid 40’s for 1.5 years away.  Bloomberg Estimated CY PE is 66…what is that?  Do people think AMZN is the same company with the same potential prospects as they had 5 years ago.  The fundamentals say this thing is overpriced.  I’m calming down now, and staying short.

You know what I hear on bloomberg, allot of people asking “when will housing bottom?”  I just don’t see it happening for much longer than everyone is saying.  The reason: boomers have two reasons now to trade in big houses for small houses. 1) they are getting old and physically don’t need a bigger house and 2) they don’t care if bad credit follows them into their 60’s. and 70’s…so they will walk away.

I decided to start this blog, because I’m starting to discover how big the world actually is. I’m 2 months away from graduation, currently considering my options. I could go entrepreneurial with some of my ideas, get really hardcore into the technology & user experience side of engineering or I could dive into the world of hedge funds.  All of which, I’m confident I would be good at. 

While this might sound like I don’t know what to do at graduation, in-fact it’s the opposite. I quite clearly know 3 good options, and am simply, going to pick the best. I am an opportunist.  As an opportunist, I am open to change.  My plans are dynamic.  If a certain opportunity presents itself, and the present value is good, I will pursue.   Like a current pending opportunity at Deloitte, presented in the form of a recent interview.  Consulting was not even an idea before I heard Paul Held speak at CUTC, and now after learning about it, I’m crossing my fingers the opportunity comes to fruition.

To be a successful opportunist, you need to always consider new opportunities. To find new opportunities, you need to be in contact with other people. These other people, need a good picture of who you are. So, check out my about, and without further a-doo, “Hello People!”.