Jeffrey McLarty

Deutch Bank upgraded AMZN today…crap.  They are likely much more informed than I.

I’m starting to worry, I knew there would be short covering going on. AMZN is up 2% on the day, and I’ve lost the paper gains I had yesturday.  I’m break even on my short, and I’m recalling a time when I said to myself 8 months ago “Don’t touch anymore deal stocks”…and here I am “investing” in AMZN.  Everybody on the street is bearish on it, that’s bullish.  I got a hunch the CEO is going to come out pointing to the fence wether he thinks he can do it or not and the shorts will get slaughtered.  Myself included.  Then again, if I loose money, at least I can say…look at the valuation ratios before the call.  FPE of 31, PE of 85, Price to Cashflow of 32, Price to Book of 40.3 all according to morningstar.  Who knows what numbers they are using.  What’s a piss off is Yahoo’s FY2008 is $1.6, an FPE in the mid 40’s for 1.5 years away.  Bloomberg Estimated CY PE is 66…what is that?  Do people think AMZN is the same company with the same potential prospects as they had 5 years ago.  The fundamentals say this thing is overpriced.  I’m calming down now, and staying short.

You know what I hear on bloomberg, allot of people asking “when will housing bottom?”  I just don’t see it happening for much longer than everyone is saying.  The reason: boomers have two reasons now to trade in big houses for small houses. 1) they are getting old and physically don’t need a bigger house and 2) they don’t care if bad credit follows them into their 60’s. and 70’s…so they will walk away.

The investing side of me is a culmination of every investment I’ve ever made as well as every investment I’ve ever seen.  I take pleasure in learning from the successful. 

The present value of a lesson learned is infinite.

I’m jumping on the bandwagon with the teachings of two different millionaires I know…a Hawaiian and Albertan Real Estate success story and a trend following entrepreneurial VC fund runner.  Both buy the tops in the markets they operate and sell it to somebody else higher, and don’t think twice if the market looks remotely like it’s about to go sideways.  Although, I’m going to keep the principles I’ve learned to me by other successful investors like Buffett, Sprot and my dad.

So take a look at XRAY, trading at 25x. 

I think there’s got to be a play somewhere on insulation.  Everybody everywhere is trying to improve the efficiency of their homes as energy gets more expensive while the planet gets more polluted.  If I found a company that was operating in that space and trading at all time highs, I’d be all over that…I’ll be looking and will report.

I promise I’m not going to blog about UX all the time.

The other day I was at the Hilton listening to a keynote speech given by Chamath Palihapitiya. He was one of the founding partners in Facebook (now VP of marketing), as well as other Internet phenomena like ICQ, and Winamp. By the way he started a career in derivatives trading!!! Before ever going Internet technology pioneer. He had some very interesting, wise, and inspirational things to say. But those are no fun to comment on, I want to disagree with him on something. He showed us a curve, it looked like a half of one of these. It was a plot of the adoption of facebook and he said that he sees no sign of it stopping - ever. I don’t have an exact quote, however he inferred that you could extrapolate the Facebook future usage from this chart (without ever having a problem) using a second order polynomial. I want to make it clear he made no reference to polynomials, I’m using this as a metaphor for his subtle inferrences. This is where I was like, “All trends end”. And you know why this trend is going to end is because the facebook UI is becoming cluttered while one by one I’m hearing people realize: “facebook is a waste of time” or “facebook it’s starting to feel creepy”. The thing is, social networking won’t end, it’s here to stay. It’s a great tool. However the technology will evolve and new players will enter. I bet nobody saw the end of ICQ coming (at least in Ontario) however their UI was simple and effective at first, then it got cluttered with features - people moved to MSN (at least in Ontario). Rinse and repeat, MSN is getting cluttered as people move to g-talk. I wonder if google will screw up a good thing with too many extra features - oh wait, didn’t they just “improve” the emoticons. I hear the sound of water whirling around and down - that’s g-talk’s eventual demise coming in 5 or 6 years. Of course this depends on the ramp up of complete adoption. Then again maybe google will continue to innovate as well as keep all their UI’s simple.

Lots of people think up stuff and name a “Law” after themselves. Look at Fitt. One day, when I have more free time, I’m going to try to create The McLarty’s Law of UI evolution: user interfaces are born simple, and die complicated. Those words are mine. Copywrite that, right now, where is my copywriting machine.

That’s obvious.

When infact it isn’t.  If it was obvious, I could have called the title “Writing” and you would have added in the rest.

This is just a little humour for myself, because I found this, interesting.

Over the last decade it has come to the attention of education providers everywhere as well as successful corporations that the user experience is the bottom line for a great product. 

Simple. Effective. Quick. Painless. Elegant. Light. Easy. Creative.

Products like this will be sought after at any price. 

Check out the Apple Human Interface Guidelines for developers

Apple, Google and RIM are the only two big ballers really ontop of the game, while other innovators like IBM and Microsoft are playing catchup.  I can tell by the job postings these companies have.  Attending events like CUTC it seems like there are two types of companies right now.  “Yah, we have a team and a usability lab setup…you should talk to Mrs. Smith she’s in charge of user experience” or “We’re putting a team together, users are important”

Noticing this a couple years ago, I got on the band wagon and took some classes in cognitive ergonomics and interface design.  Turns out, it’s a sweet industry to work in, usability that is.  I really like the work.

Forgive me for the usability of this site, I don’t have the time to make it perfect - it’s a work in progress and low priority.

Accelerometers, Gyroscopes & GPS. They are being put in everything, combined with other products at an unbelievably high rate. Some applications are not even discovered for these chips yet.  I can’t believe they haven’t been adopted sooner. Look at the new stuff from Logitech, Apple, and RIM they are the leaders and will force everybody else to become copy cats real quick.

I decided to start this blog, because I’m starting to discover how big the world actually is. I’m 2 months away from graduation, currently considering my options. I could go entrepreneurial with some of my ideas, get really hardcore into the technology & user experience side of engineering or I could dive into the world of hedge funds.  All of which, I’m confident I would be good at. 

While this might sound like I don’t know what to do at graduation, in-fact it’s the opposite. I quite clearly know 3 good options, and am simply, going to pick the best. I am an opportunist.  As an opportunist, I am open to change.  My plans are dynamic.  If a certain opportunity presents itself, and the present value is good, I will pursue.   Like a current pending opportunity at Deloitte, presented in the form of a recent interview.  Consulting was not even an idea before I heard Paul Held speak at CUTC, and now after learning about it, I’m crossing my fingers the opportunity comes to fruition.

To be a successful opportunist, you need to always consider new opportunities. To find new opportunities, you need to be in contact with other people. These other people, need a good picture of who you are. So, check out my about, and without further a-doo, “Hello People!”.